Baccarat chance calculator: exact odds, house edge and cost per hour

Choose the number of decks, the banker commission and the tie payout above. The calculator returns the exact probability and house edge of every main bet and converts it into what a session costs.

By CasinoTrust Editorial TeamUpdated August 21, 20266 min readFact-checked against the Ranking Protocol

Baccarat rules vary more than the layout suggests: six or eight decks, 5% or 4% commission, no-commission tables where a banker 6 pays half, ties at 8:1 or 9:1. Each change moves the house edge, sometimes by more than the difference between banker and player. This tool, one of our free player calculators, gives you the exact figure for the table in front of you. The rules themselves are explained in how to play baccarat.

What the calculator computes

Exact win probabilities by deck count

The calculator enumerates every possible combination of cards for a shoe of the chosen size and applies the fixed third-card rules to each, weighting by how often that combination occurs. The result is the exact probability of a banker win, a player win and a tie — not a simulation. Deck count matters because removing a card changes the composition of what remains; with a single deck the effect is noticeable, with eight decks it is small.

House edge by commission and tie payout

Edge is the expected loss per unit staked. For banker it is the win probability × net payout minus the loss probability: with 5% commission, 0.4586 × 0.95 − 0.4462 = −1.06%. Change the commission to 4% and the figure becomes 0.4586 × 0.96 − 0.4462 = −0.60%. Set commission to zero and the banker bet would favour the player by 1.24%, which is why no-commission tables add a rule such as "banker 6 pays 1:2" — that exception alone costs 1.46%. For the tie, 9.52% × 8 − 90.48% = −14.36% at 8:1, and −4.84% at 9:1.

Two things stand out. Deck count barely touches the banker and player bets — the spread is five hundredths of a point — while the tie moves by more than a full point. And the banker bet stays the cheapest option at every deck count under standard commission. The picture changes only when the rules change.

How to read expected loss per hour

Edge is a percentage; what you feel is money. The calculator multiplies three numbers: average stake × hands per hour × house edge. That product is the expected loss per hour — the long-run average, around which individual sessions swing widely.

Three lessons follow. First, pace matters as much as stake: a £25 bettor at a squeeze table pays less per hour than a £10 bettor on a speed table. Second, the tie is ruinous — the same £10 at 70 hands an hour costs £100.52 an hour at 8:1. Third, variance dwarfs expectation over any single session. The standard deviation of a banker bet is about 0.93 units per hand, so 70 hands at £10 carries a one-sigma swing of roughly ±£78 around a £7.42 expected loss. You will not see the edge in one session; you will see it over fifty.

Using the calculator step by step

1. 1

   Read the table rules

   Find the deck count, the commission rule and the tie payout in the game's info panel or on the felt. Note any 'banker 6 pays half' or 'super six' wording.

2. 2

   Enter the rules above

   Set decks, commission percentage (or the no-commission variant) and tie payout. The probabilities and house edges update instantly.

3. 3

   Pick the lowest-edge bet

   Usually banker. At no-commission tables with banker 6 paying half, it is player. Never the tie.

4. 4

   Enter your stake and pace

   Use your real average bet and a realistic hands-per-hour figure: about 40 for a squeeze table, 60–80 for live dealer, 120+ for speed or RNG baccarat.

5. 5

   Compare the hourly cost with your budget

   If the number is higher than you would pay for any other evening out, reduce the stake or the pace before you play — not after.

What the calculator does not do

• It does not track the shoe. Card removal within a shoe changes the main-bet probabilities by a negligible amount, and no betting system or scoreboard pattern changes them at all — see our baccarat strategies guide.
• It covers the main bets, not the dozens of proprietary side bets. The common ones (pairs, Big/Small, Dragon Bonus, Dragon 7, Panda 8) and their edges are tabulated in the strategy guide.
• It assumes a fair game. Licensed operators have their RNG and live tables audited; unlicensed ones may not. Our online casino reviews note which platforms publish their table rules and test certificates.