Poker ICM calculator: turn chip stacks into prize-money equity

Enter the remaining stacks and the payout structure above. The calculator returns each player's share of the prize pool under the Independent Chip Model — the number that should drive your bubble and final-table decisions.

By CasinoTrust Editorial TeamUpdated 29 August 20267 min readFact-checked against the Ranking Protocol

In a cash game a chip is worth exactly its face value. In a tournament it is not: the first chip you win is worth more than the last, because prizes are paid by finishing position, not by chip count. The Independent Chip Model (ICM) is the standard way to price that difference. This page explains how the calculator above works, walks through an example by hand and shows where the model breaks down. It is one of the free tools that support our poker strategy guide.

What ICM calculates

ICM takes two inputs — every remaining player's stack and the remaining payouts — and returns each player's equity: the average amount of prize money they would collect if the tournament were settled many times from this exact position, with every chip equally likely to be won. It makes no assumptions about skill, position, blinds or who is about to act; it is a pure function of stacks and payouts.

The Malmuth–Harville model

The model, developed by Mason Malmuth and formalised by David Harville's horse-racing work, assumes that the probability a player finishes first equals their share of the chips in play. The probability they finish second is computed by removing each possible winner in turn: given that player A has won, the chance that B finishes second is B's share of the chips excluding A's. Third place repeats the step with two players removed, and so on. Each player's equity is then the sum over finishing positions of (probability of that finish × prize for that finish).

Worked example: three players, three payouts

Three players remain with 10,000 chips in play and a £1,000 prize pool paid £500 / £300 / £200. Stacks: A 5,000, B 3,000, C 2,000.

1. 1

   Probability of finishing first

   Share of chips: A = 5,000 / 10,000 = 50%; B = 30%; C = 20%.

2. 2

   Probability of finishing second

   For A: if B wins (30%), A's share of the remaining 7,000 is 5/7, giving 0.30 × 0.714 = 21.4%; if C wins (20%), A's share of 8,000 is 5/8, giving 0.20 × 0.625 = 12.5%. Total 33.9%. Same method: B = 0.50 × 3/5 + 0.20 × 3/8 = 30.0% + 7.5% = 37.5%; C = 0.50 × 2/5 + 0.30 × 2/7 = 20.0% + 8.6% = 28.6%.

3. 3

   Probability of finishing third

   Whatever is left: A = 100 − 50 − 33.9 = 16.1%; B = 100 − 30 − 37.5 = 32.5%; C = 100 − 20 − 28.6 = 51.4%.

4. 4

   Multiply by the payouts

   A: 0.500 × £500 + 0.339 × £300 + 0.161 × £200 = £250.00 + £101.79 + £32.14 = £383.93. B: £150.00 + £112.50 + £65.00 = £327.50. C: £100.00 + £85.71 + £102.86 = £288.57. The three equities sum to £1,000.

The chip leader's 50% of the chips is worth only 38% of the money, while the short stack's 20% of chips is worth 29% of the money. That compression is the whole point of ICM: chips you already hold are worth less per unit than chips you are risking, so confrontations that are neutral in chips are negative in money for the bigger stacks involved.

When ICM matters most

The money bubble

With one elimination to go before the payouts start, the jump from £0 to a min-cash is the largest single step in the structure relative to the stacks. Short stacks should often fold hands they would shove in chip-EV terms; big stacks should apply pressure, because the medium stacks cannot call without risking a zero. A 55% favourite all-in on the bubble is frequently a money-losing call.

Final tables and pay jumps

Every pay jump recreates a small bubble. With three left and a short stack about to blind out, the two bigger stacks should avoid each other almost entirely — in the example above, if A and B get it in, the winner gains far less than the loser loses, while C gains equity doing nothing. This is called ICM pressure and it is why the standard advice is to tighten up against stacks that cover you and widen against stacks you cover.

Satellites

In a satellite where every prize is identical (say ten seats worth £1,000 each), ICM reaches its extreme: once you have enough chips to guarantee a seat, every additional chip is worth nothing and any all-in is a mistake. Folding pocket aces pre-flop can be correct.

ICM versus chip EV

Early in a large-field tournament, with hundreds of players and payouts far away, ICM and chip EV give almost identical answers and you can play for chips. The gap opens as the field shrinks and the next pay jump becomes a meaningful fraction of the average stack. A practical signal: if the next pay jump is more than about 10% of your stack's cash value, run the numbers.

Limitations of ICM

• It ignores skill. A better player's chips are worth more than the model says; a weaker player's less. ICM assumes every chip in the pool is equally likely to be won.
• It ignores position and blinds. A short stack on the button with the blinds about to pass has more real equity than the same stack posting the big blind next hand. Future-game models try to correct for this.
• It overvalues short stacks slightly. Because it assumes chips are randomly redistributed, it underestimates how often the short stack is forced all-in before others clash.
• It assumes independence. The Harville formula for second place is an approximation; it is known to be slightly biased in horse racing and the same bias carries into poker.
• It is a snapshot. ICM values the position now; it says nothing about what will happen over the next orbit, which is what a shove/fold decision actually trades on.

Using the calculator well

1. 1

   Enter every remaining stack

   Include players at other tables; ICM is computed over the whole field, not just your table.

2. 2

   Enter the remaining payouts

   Use the actual structure from the tournament lobby. If deals are common in your room, enter the deal payouts instead.

3. 3

   Read each player's equity

   Compare your equity with your chip share. A big gap means ICM pressure is high and you should tighten against covering stacks.

4. 4

   Test the alternatives

   Adjust the stacks to reflect the outcome of a call or fold and see how your equity moves. Repeat with different assumptions about your win probability.