Pick the dealer's up-card and your own hand in the tool above. It shows how often the dealer goes bust, how often you go bust if you hit, and which action basic strategy calls for.
Blackjack is the only casino game where your own decisions move the house edge — from around 2% for someone guessing to roughly 0.5% for someone playing flawless basic strategy. Every single line on the strategy chart comes out of comparing two numbers: the dealer's chance of busting from the card you can see, and your chance of busting if you take one more. This calculator, part of our free player tools, hands you both and shows how they fit together. The rules themselves are covered in how to play blackjack.
How often the dealer busts, up-card by up-card
The dealer makes no choices at all: they draw until they reach 17 or more, standing on soft 17 in the figures below, which is the S17 rule. Since roughly 30% of the shoe is ten-value cards, the dealer's bust chance swings heavily on that up-card. These numbers are for a multi-deck shoe and are the standard values used when strategy is derived.
| Dealer up-card | Bust probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.3% | Weaker than it looks, but the dealer still makes a hand two times in three |
| 3 | 37.4% | Slightly weaker than a 2 |
| 4 | 40.3% | Bust card — the dealer's hand fails two times in five |
| 5 | 42.9% | Weakest up-card of all |
| 6 | 42.1% | Nearly as weak as 5; the classic 'stand and double' card |
| 7 | 26.0% | The cliff: bust chance drops by a third |
| 8 | 23.9% | Strong |
| 9 | 23.3% | Strong |
| 10, J, Q, K | 21.4% | Very strong; dealer makes 20 about a third of the time |
| Ace | 11.5% | Strongest (after checking for blackjack); dealer busts roughly one hand in nine |
Take an average across all up-cards and the dealer busts on about 28% of hands. Where the dealer hits soft 17 (H17), bust probabilities edge up for the ace and the small cards, but the dealer also makes more 18s to 21s, so H17 leaves the player worse off overall by roughly 0.2 percentage points of house edge.
Your own bust chance when you hit a hard total
A hard total is one with no ace being counted as 11. Hit a hard 12 and any ten-value card breaks you; hit a hard 16 and anything above a 5 does the job. The figures below are the standard multi-deck approximations.
| Your hard total | Cards that bust you | Bust probability if you hit |
|---|---|---|
| 11 or less | None | 0% |
| 12 | 10, J, Q, K | 31% |
| 13 | 9 and above | 39% |
| 14 | 8 and above | 56% |
| 15 | 7 and above | 58% |
| 16 | 6 and above | 62% |
| 17 | 5 and above | 69% |
| 18 | 4 and above | 77% |
| 19 | 3 and above | 85% |
| 20 | 2 and above | 92% |
Soft totals — where an ace is still counted as 11 — cannot bust on a single card, which is exactly why basic strategy hits soft 17 and below against nearly everything and doubles soft hands hard against a 5 or a 6.
How those two numbers turn into basic strategy
The intuition is straightforward: when the dealer is likely to bust, do not risk busting yourself; when the dealer is likely to make a hand, you have to improve yours even if that means risking the break. The precise line comes from comparing the full expected value of each action, which the calculator does for you, but the bust numbers alone explain most of the chart.
| Your total | vs dealer 2–3 | vs dealer 4–6 | vs dealer 7–Ace | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hit | Stand | Hit | 31% bust risk is low; against a 2 or 3 the dealer still makes a hand ~64% of the time, so you must improve |
| 13 | Stand | Stand | Hit | 39% bust risk now exceeds the benefit of improving against weak cards |
| 14 | Stand | Stand | Hit | Dealer 2–6 busts 35–43%; your 56% bust risk makes hitting worse than waiting |
| 15 | Stand | Stand | Hit (surrender vs 10 if offered) | Against 7+ the dealer makes a hand ~75% of the time; standing on 15 loses almost always |
| 16 | Stand | Stand | Hit (surrender vs 9, 10, A if offered) | Hitting 16 busts 62% of the time — but standing against a 10 wins only when the dealer busts, 21.4% |
Using the calculator alongside the strategy chart
Set the dealer's up-card
Read off the dealer bust probability. Anything from 7 upwards is a 'pat' card: assume the dealer reaches 17 or better and play to beat that.
Enter your hand
A hard total, a soft total or a pair. The tool returns your bust probability on a hit plus the basic-strategy action.
Cross-check the chart
Hold the action against the full basic-strategy chart, which also covers doubles, splits and surrender. The calculator gives you the why; the chart gives you every answer.
Drill it until it sticks
Numbers only become instinct through repetition. The blackjack trainer on the practice page deals hands and marks every decision against basic strategy.
What these numbers leave out
- Rule variations. Dealer hitting soft 17, no doubling after splits, 6:5 blackjack payouts and continuous shuffling machines all move the edge. A 6:5 payout on its own adds about 1.4 percentage points — more than every strategy decision you will make put together.
- Deck composition. These figures assume a full, randomly ordered shoe. Card counters track the shifting ratio of tens to small cards and adjust both their stakes and some decisions; see the blackjack strategy guide.
- Side bets. Perfect Pairs, 21+3 and insurance sit outside this tool. Insurance is a bet that the dealer's hole card is a ten, paid at 2:1 — the true odds are nearer 2.25:1, which leaves a house edge of roughly 7% for anyone not counting. Turn it down.
- Variance. A 0.5% edge means an expected loss of ₦3,000 an hour at ₦10,000 a hand and 60 hands an hour, but the standard deviation per hand is about 1.15 units, so swings of ±₦90,000 inside a single hour are perfectly normal.
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Open calculatorFrequently asked questions
Which dealer up-card is most likely to bust?
A 5, which breaks 42.9% of the time with the dealer standing on soft 17, with a 6 just behind at 42.1% and a 4 at 40.3%. An ace is the least likely to bust at 11.5%, and a ten-value card busts 21.4% of the time.
What are my odds of busting if I hit 16?
Around 62% with a full multi-deck shoe, since any 6 or higher breaks the hand. Basic strategy still hits 16 against a dealer 7 or better, or surrenders against 9, 10 and ace where the table allows it, because standing only wins when the dealer busts — and that happens just 21–26% of the time.
Why stand on 12 against a 4 but hit against a 2?
Because the dealer busts 40.3% of the time from a 4 and only 35.3% from a 2. The expected value of hitting 12 — busting 31% of the time and improving otherwise — beats standing against a 2 or 3, but loses to standing against 4, 5 and 6.
Does the dealer hitting soft 17 change these numbers?
A little. Under H17 the dealer busts marginally more often from small cards and an ace, yet also makes more strong hands, and the net effect is roughly 0.2 percentage points in the house's favour. Basic strategy shifts in a handful of spots, such as doubling 11 against an ace.
How often does the dealer bust in total?
About 28% of hands across all up-cards under S17 rules, and slightly more under H17. From 2 through 6 the rate runs 35–43%; from 7 through ace it is 11–26%, which is exactly why the chart treats 7 as the dividing line.
Is this the same thing as a card-counting tool?
It is not. This assumes a full, randomly ordered shoe and gives you the probabilities that sit behind basic strategy. Card counting tracks the cards already dealt to work out how the remaining shoe differs from that baseline; our blackjack strategy guide explains the Hi-Lo system and where it runs into real-world limits.